Now for the East Qualifiers. Many of my picks are going to follow the same logic as my West predictions and may sound a bit familiar. The qualifier will consist of 33 to 50 games. A team can play as few as 4 games and as many as 23 games. Keep in mind, I’m predicting LGD.cn and Vici Gaming to finish first and second and that will influence my answers.

1.) Most Picked Hero (3 Points)

I looked at three different types of draft data: overall drafts, drafts for three East tournaments ( G-1 Asian Qualifiers, Netolic II East, and the AMD Premiere League), and the drafts by the individual teams since March 1st. The data can be found by using the Stats -> Draft page and some of the aggregate data is on this spreadsheet.

In overall drafts Rubick, Magnus, and Shadow Demon are the most picked overall and the only three heroes picked over 50% of the time. In the three comparable tournaments Shadow Demon, Rubick, Queen of Pain, and Magnus are the top four most picked in some order. Seven of the eight individual teams have Shadow Demon as the most picked in their drafts with Rubick and Magnus further down the list. VG and LGD.cn drafts in particular feature a lot of Shadow Demon.

I think Shadow Demon is going to fall into that sweet spot of avoiding the first four bans and being picked in the next six. In general, the teams in the tournament feel comfortable playing him and do not mind playing against him enough to ban him in the next four (though he does get the occasional first four ban).

However could there be an occurrence similar to the West Qualifiers where teams begin to prioritize their carry picks (Lifestealer and Gyro) while not looking to ban those heroes out in the first four? Lifestealer and Lone Druid might fall into that category but I believe they will be banned too often in the first four picks for that to happen.

My Choice: Shadow Demon

Honorable Mentions: Rubick, Magnus, Lifestealer, Lone Druid, Queen of Pain

2.) Most Banned Hero (3 Points)

In drafts by the seven of the eight teams (all but Dreamz) in the tournament, Batrider was the most banned. In the Netolic II East, G-1 Asian Qualifiers, and AMD Premiere League Batrider was by far the most banned hero. Batrider is also the most banned hero overall.

My Choice: Batrider

Honorable Mentions: Nyx, Lifestealer

3.) Hero with the Most First Bloods (1 Point)

Yes, Gyrocopter is leading the First Bloods in the West Qualifier. Shadow Demon is tied for second with Weaver at three. I keep seeing how close Shadow Demon has been to even more First Bloods and am predicting that Shadow Demon will be the most picked hero overall. Also, Gyro is not nearly as popular in the East as in the West. I updated the data below to include recent games and the second table to be limited to only the last three months.

The data is mostly accurate with the exception that it omits games where the first hero to die was from a deny or from being ‘killed by Radiant/Dire.’ The top first Blood Heroes Overall (roughly 2100 games):

Hero First Bloods
Shadow Demon 126
Rubick 102
Leshrac 99
Queen of Pain 83
Lifestealer 76
Gyrocopter 70
Chen 69
Dark Seer 66
Magnus 64
Chaos Knight 62
Hero First Bloods — Last 3 Months
Shadow Demon 59
Queen of Pain 36
Magnus 35
Gyrocopter 35
Leshrac 33
Rubick 33
Keeper of the Light 29
Lifestealer 27
Lina 22
Chen 21

Shadow Demon is the favorite in my opinion. With Shadow Demon remaining such a popular pick and being an early game ganker and tri-lane hero, I’ll stick with Shadow Demon. Rubick, Magnus, Leshrac, Gyro, and QoP all seem like reasonable choices, particularly if you think a team that prefers those heroes will go far in the tournament.

My Choice: Shadow Demon

Honorable Mentions: Rubick, Queen of Pain, Leshrac, Magnus, Gyro

4.) Hero with the Most Deaths (1 Point)

Support heroes typically die the most. The two most picked support heroes–and among the most picked heroes overall in eastern Dota–are Shadow Demon and then Rubick. Deaths by hero in the past three months:

Hero Games Deaths
Shadow Demon 500 2863
Rubick 529 2743
Magnus 508 2336
Keeper of the Light 346 1566
Dark Seer 351 1455
Nyx Assassin 282 1443
Gyrocopter 341 1392
Furion 281 1319
Queen of Pain 314 1316
Leshrac 248 1313

The data shows that Shadow Demon is more picked than Rubick, particularly in drafts with LGD.cn or VG in it. I’m favoring Shadow Demon in this category.

My Choice: Shadow Demon

Honorable Mentions: Rubick

5.) Highest GPM in a Single Match (5 Points) — ‘Less than 800 GPM’ versus ‘More than 800 GPM’

This is still a tough one. I feel stronger about the ‘More than 800 GPM’ in this tournament than I did in the West Qualifiers. For one, I do not think the level of competition is as equal as in the West Qualifiers and the 800+ GPM games typically happen in blowouts. Secondly, out of the 8 teams all but Rattlesnake and Dreamz have had an 800+ GPM game. The breakdown:

Player 800+ GPM Games
LaKelz 7
ninjaboogie (DQ’d) 4
Meracle 3
Sylar 1
ZSMJ 1
Yani 1
xiaotuji 1

And the third reason I’m going with the over: it’s kind of fun to have a rooting interest in the over. Seeing a carry snowball and just blow people up can be entertaining. The rest of this section is from my last post.

There is data that supports either choice. Heroes have gotten over 800 GPM 117 times in roughly 2600 games or 4.47% of the time. What are the odds that something that happens 4.47% of the time will occur at least once in 33 games? There is a 78% of that event occurring at least once. In 50 games? 90% chance of occurring. That suggests that over 800 GPM is the clear choice. However, many of those over 800 GPM games happened in lesser competitions where there is a greater difference in quality between the two teams. There were no over 800 GPM games in the TI2, none in the 2012 West Qualifier and only one in the 2012 East Qualifier. So far in the 2013 West Qualifier it has happened once.

In offline games, there have been only 13 occurrences of over 800 GPM in 470 games, or 2.77% of the time. Out of those 13 games, 5 occurred in the ASUS FBotY tourney which had some unknown teams playing the likes of NaVi and Empire. Exclude those games and  the odds are basically 50-50, with an over 800 GPM game having an under 50% chance of occurring if you think the tourney will only be 33 games and an over 50% chance of occurring if the tourney has 50 games.

Here’s a breakdown of the amount of 800+ GPM games by tournament.

Tournament Total Games 800+ GPM Games
StarSeries II Finals 56 1
Gosu MM Asia 35 1
Prodota2 Pro 34 0
ECAL Americas 20 0
The Defense II 111 0
BTS World Tour 78 0
The International 2012 153 0
StarSeries III Prelims 91 0
StarSeries III Finals 34 1
G-1 IV Prelims 53 0
G-1 IV Finals 9 0
Dreamhack 2012 Winter 39 1
GosuLeague IV 49 0
RaidCall I 76 2
GEST D2 Tourney 36 2
GEST D2: The Challenge 15 0
TPL III 119 4
GosuLeague V 54 7
The Defense III 173 14
RaidCall II 145 6
StarSeries IV Prelims 93 7
StarSeries IV Finals 14 1
ASUS FBotY 39 5
The Asia 33 1
G-League II 47 0
Killing Spree 12 1
SEA League 35 2
TPL IV 119 2
EMS Spring 2013 Prelims 79 5
StarSeries V Prelims 146 7
The International 2012 West Qualifiers 35 0
The International 2012 East Qualifiers 34 1
GEST: March 2013 87 8
Dreamhack Invtl. 42 2
WePlay 122 6
Armageddon GS 16 3
G-1 2013 Asian Qualifiers 95 8
Netolic II: East 39 2
StarSeries V Finals 15 2
G-1 2013 Western Qualifiers 24 0
AMD Premier League 64 4
GEST: April 2013 19 1
EMS Season 1 Finals 16 1
G-1 2013 Finals 15 0
GEST: May 2013 18 3
Curse Invtl. 14 1
Netolic II: West 38 5

My Choice: 800 GPM or More

6.) Number of Heroes Never Picked or Banned (2 Points)

It’s hard to find comps for this. Here are some recent eastern tournaments and the results for those tournaments:

Tournament Games Heroes Picked/Banned Not Picked/Banned
AMD Premier League 80 74 24
Netolic II: East 39 58 40
G-1 2013 Asian Qualifiers 95 73 21
G-1 Phase 3 34 59 35

However the AMD Premiere League, G-1 complete qualifiers, and Netolic East had more teams than this tournament and occurred over a longer time frame. G-1 Phase 3 had 8 teams and took place over the course of two weeks but had a smaller hero pool. I’m guessing the number will fall in the 31-50 range.

So far in the West Qualifiers, the number is at 44. In day 3 of the tournament only five new heroes were picked or banned and in day 4 I believe only 1 new hero has been picked or banned. Looking over the list of the infrequently picked or banned heroes in the West Qualifiers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of those picks–like Omniknight or Lycan–not be selected but could see some other heroes be picked up like Earthshaker. This spreadsheet has a tab where I predict whether the hero will be picked or banned or ignored. Feel free to copy and paste it to your own spreadsheet and use it as a baseline to make your own prediction.

My Choice: 41- 45

Honorable Mention: 36-40

7.) Number of Big Comebacks (1 Point) —  ’3 or Less’ versus ’4 or More’ 

I’m still working on updating my win probability model so I have more of this type of data on hand than I did for the last post. A comeback of 10,000 gold or more has happened 57 times in 2,127 games or 2.7% of the time. Using the Binomial Distribution, for an event that rare to occur 4 or more times ranges between 2% and 5% depending on how many games there are. Clear choice for the under.

My Choice: ’3 or Less’

8.) Fastest Game Time (3 Points) —  ’Under 18 Minutes’ versus ‘Over 18 Minutes’ 

While watching the West Qualifiers, I started to realize how hard it is to win a game in under 18 minutes. In order for it to happen, a team basically has to give up and call an early gg. While I do think there is a large disparity between the best and worst teams in this tournament, those teams are likely to only meet in the first round where the incentive to call a gg will be lowest. Also the play schedule is not particularly demanding and there is incentive for teams to try hard with the hope of possibly getting an invite to the play-in game. I also wonder if there is a psychological factor with players being aware of the compendium questions (like the Rox.Kis player who bought a rapier after the gg) and not wanting to be the team that quits prior to 18 minutes. That being said, it would not surprise me to see LGD.cn or VG absolutely crush someone. I kind of wish this question was first set of barracks destroyed instead of shortest game.

The rest of this section is the same as the West Qualifiers post.

Under 18 minute games have occurred 9 times in 470 offline games, 35 times in 910 games since March 1st and 97 times in 2,691 games overall. Those percentages suggest the smart bet is on ‘Under 18 Minutes’ with the data from offline games suggesting it is almost a toss-up.

Here is how often under 18 minute games have occurred per tournament:

Tournament Games Under 18 Minute Games
StarSeries II Finals 56 1
Gosu MM Asia 35 1
Prodota2 Pro 34 2
ECAL Americas 20 0
The Defense II 111 1
BTS World Tour 78 4
The International 2012 153 3
StarSeries III Prelims 91 4
StarSeries III Finals 34 0
G-1 IV Prelims 53 1
G-1 IV Finals 9 0
Dreamhack 2012 Winter 39 1
GosuLeague IV 49 1
RaidCall I 76 9
GEST D2 Tourney 36 2
GEST D2: The Challenge 15 0
TPL III 119 6
GosuLeague V 54 4
The Defense III 173 3
RaidCall II 145 6
StarSeries IV Prelims 93 4
StarSeries IV Finals 14 0
ASUS FBotY 39 2
The Asia 33 1
G-League II 47 1
Killing Spree 12 1
SEA League 35 0
TPL IV 119 7
EMS Spring 2013 Prelims 79 5
StarSeries V Prelims 146 8
The International 2012 West Qualifiers 35 0
The International 2012 East Qualifiers 34 0
GEST: March 2013 87 2
Dreamhack Invtl. 42 3
WePlay 122 4
Armageddon GS 16 0
G-1 2013 Asian Qualifiers 95 2
Netolic II: East 39 3
StarSeries V Finals 15 0
G-1 2013 Western Qualifiers 24 2
AMD Premier League 64 1
GEST: April 2013 19 1
EMS Season 1 Finals 16 0
G-1 2013 Finals 15 0
GEST: May 2013 18 0
Curse Invtl. 14 1
Netolic II: West 38 0

My Choice: Over 18 Minutes

9.) Number of Greater than 60 Minute Games (3 Points) —  ’5 or Less’ versus ’6 or More’ 

Same as the last post.

Tournament Total Games 60 Minute or More Games
StarSeries II Finals 56 4
Gosu MM Asia 35 0
Prodota2 Pro 34 4
ECAL Americas 20 0
The Defense II 111 7
BTS World Tour 78 2
The International 2012 153 5
StarSeries III Prelims 91 1
StarSeries III Finals 34 1
G-1 IV Prelims 53 3
G-1 IV Finals 9 0
Dreamhack 2012 Winter 39 0
GosuLeague IV 49 0
RaidCall I 76 1
GEST D2 Tourney 36 2
GEST D2: The Challenge 15 0
TPL III 119 2
GosuLeague V 54 0
The Defense III 173 1
RaidCall II 145 2
StarSeries IV Prelims 93 0
StarSeries IV Finals 14 0
ASUS FBotY 39 0
The Asia 33 0
G-League II 47 4
Killing Spree 12 0
SEA League 35 1
TPL IV 119 2
EMS Spring 2013 Prelims 79 1
StarSeries V Prelims 146 1
The International 2012 West Qualifiers 35 4
The International 2012 East Qualifiers 34 3
GEST: March 2013 87 6
Dreamhack Invtl. 42 0
WePlay 122 1
Armageddon GS 16 0
G-1 2013 Asian Qualifiers 95 2
Netolic II: East 39 1
StarSeries V Finals 15 0
G-1 2013 Western Qualifiers 24 1
AMD Premier League 64 1
GEST: April 2013 19 0
EMS Season 1 Finals 16 0
G-1 2013 Finals 15 1
GEST: May 2013 18 0
Curse Invtl. 14 0
Netolic II: West 38 0

Seems like ’5 or Less’ is the smart bet. Only two tournaments have had over 5 games last 60 or more minutes. Out of 2,691 games 60 minute plus games have occurred 64 times. The binomial distribution puts the odds of six or more 60 minute games happening in this tournament (33 to 50 games) occurring less than 1% of the time.

My Choice: 5 or Less

10.) Earliest Roshan Kill Time (1 Point) —  ’Less Than 1 Minute’ versus ‘Over 1 Minute’ 

Same as the last post.

Early Rosh kills are rare, occurring 19 times in 2,118 games. Using that probability, the odds of one happening this tourney range from 27% to 36%, depending on how many games this tournament has.

My Choice: Over 1 Minute

11.) Earliest Tower Kill Time (1 Point) —  ’Less Than 2 Minutes’ versus ‘Over 2 Minutes’ 

Same as the last post.

This is even more rare than early Rosh kills, happening only 9 times in 2,118 games. Using that probability, the odds of an early tower kill happening range from 15% to 19%, depending on how many games this tournament has.

My Choice: Over 2 Minutes

12.) Rapiers Purchased (1 Point) —  ’2 or Less’ versus ’3 or More’ 

The two ways I can plausibly see someone getting a Rapier is if the gg has already been called or if the team is far behind or has the Aegis with a Gyrocopter. The first thing is hard to predict–though it did happen in the West Qualifiers once so far. The second occurrence is plausible, but I do not predict Gyro being picked enough in this tournament for those types of games to occur multiple times.

I made a tab on the spreadsheet I link to above that has all the replays I have parsed (some replays cannot be parsed due to bugs or replays are not available) that have a Divine Rapier. There were three Gyro + Divine games in the AMD Premiere League. However I do not see VG or LGD.cn going to that strategy. I wonder if it would be a viable strategy for a lesser team to go into every game planning on the Gyro + Divine. Yes it’s risky, but when your chances of winning a match are low to begin with a high variance strategy favors the team that is behind.

My data on this is not completely accurate as it is difficult to distinguish if more than one Rapier was bought or if a Rapier was lost and someone else picked it up. I am going to assume that my data does not have any instances of games with more than one Rapier purchase in it. There have been 109 games with a Rapier in 2,118 total games. Using the Binomial Distribution and those numbers the chance of ’2 or Less’ Rapiers ranges from 76% to 52% depending on how many games this tournament has.

Using only data from the last three months, there have been 43 Rapiers in 738 games. Using that percentage and the Binomial Distribution, the odds of ‘Two or Less’ Rapiers ranges from 70% to 44%. I could see this one going either way but slightly prefer the under.

My Choice: 2 or Less

13.) Refreshers Purchased (1 Point) —  ’3 or Less’ versus ’4 or More’ 

Refresher was purchased 181 times in 2,118 games overall and 80 times in the last 738 games (last three months). Both numbers (181/2118 and 80/738) and the Binomial Distribution put ’4 or More’ as the more likely occurrence. There is a 51% to 80% chance of ’4 or More’ (last three months) and 31% to 63% chance of occurring (overall numbers) depending on how many games the tournament has.

This spreadsheet has a list of all the Refresher games that I have parsed. The list is almost all Magnus with the occasional Tidehunter, Dark Seer, and Queen of Pain. For this to happen you need a lot of Magnus games and many of those Magnus games to go late or to have Magnus farm very well. I’m going to take the under this time. I don’t see LGD.cn picking Magnus enough and seeing those games remain close enough for Magnus to get the necessary farm.

My Choice: 3 or Less

14.) Largest Single Crit Hit Damage (1 Point)

Still not sure what this question is asking for. See this post for what I’m basing my guess on.

My Choice: 1301-1400

15.) Most Roshan Kills in a Single Game — ’3 or Less’ versus ’4 or More’ (3 Points)

Same as the West prediction. It only takes one long, evenly matched game out of a possible 33-50 games for ‘4 or More’ to occur.

Roshan has been killed four or more times in 66 games out of a total of 2,118 games or 3.12% of the time. Using that percentage, the chance of ’4 or More’ kills happening this tournament ranged from 65% to 80% depending on the number of games this tournament has. Here’s a breakdown by tournament:

Tournament 4+ Rosh Kill Games
ECAL Americas 0
The International 2012 7
StarSeries III Prelims 7
StarSeries III Finals 0
G-1 IV Prelims 2
G-1 IV Finals 0
Dreamhack 2012 Winter 6
GosuLeague IV 2
RaidCall I 1
GEST D2 Tourney 0
GEST D2: The Challenge 0
TPL III 3
GosuLeague V 0
The Defense III 6
RaidCall II 5
StarSeries IV Prelims 2
StarSeries IV Finals 1
ASUS FBotY 0
The Asia 0
G-League II 4
Killing Spree 0
SEA League 0
TPL IV 3
EMS Spring 2013 Prelims 2
StarSeries V Prelims 1
GEST: March 2013 5
Dreamhack Invtl. 1
WePlay 2
Armageddon GS 0
G-1 2013 Asian Qualifiers 2
Netolic II: East 0
StarSeries V Finals 1
G-1 2013 Western Qualifiers 1
AMD Premier League 0
GEST: April 2013 0
EMS Season 1 Finals 0
G-1 2013 Finals 0
GEST: May 2013 1
Curse Invtl. 1
Netolic II: West 0

My Choice: 4 or More