Compendium Predictions: West Qualifiers Running Tally

I’ll do one of these for the East Qualifiers in a separate thread.

Feel free to use the comment section to post thoughts on the matches or correct me if I make any mistakes. Basic match stats will be available 5-10 minutes after the match ends on this page and the live match page will let you know who is playing which heroes and what the current tower score is.

Last Updated: May 19th, 1:40 PM PST (Final Results)

Last Match Included: 199147098 (Last game of the finals)

1.) Most Picked Hero (3 Points)

Final answer: ‘Lifestealer’

Hero Picked Banned
Lifestealer 27 12
Gyrocopter 23 14
Shadow Demon 21 14
Bane 18 10
Rubick 18 11
Lone Druid 17 15
Clockwerk 16 12
Puck 16 11
Magnus 15 18
Dark Seer 14 19

2.) Most Banned Hero (3 Points)

Final answer: ‘Wisp’

Hero Picked Banned
Wisp 4 35
Batrider 12 27
Dark Seer 14 19
Keeper of the Light 14 19
Magnus 15 18
Furion 13 18
Lone Druid 17 15
Gyrocopter 23 14
Shadow Demon 21 14
Weaver 11 14

3.) Hero with the Most First Bloods (1 Point)

Final answer: ‘Gyrocopter’ and ‘Rubick’

Hero First Bloods
Gyro 4
Rubick 4
Bane 3
Nyx Assassin 3
Shadow Demon 3
Weaver 3
Juggernaut 2
Lifestealer 2
Puck 2
Alchemist 1
Anti-Mage 1
Batrider 1
Disruptor 1
Furion 1
KotL 1
Leshrac 1
Luna 1
Magnus 1
Tiny 1
Undying 1
Visage 1
Wisp 1

4.) Hero with the Most Deaths (1 Point)

Final answer: ‘Shadow Demon’

Hero Games Deaths
Shadow Demon 21 83
Lifestealer 27 82
Rubick 18 75
Magnus 15 66
Gyrocopter 23 62
Bane 18 60
Clockwerk 16 59
Furion 13 59
Puck 16 55
Keeper of the Light 14 50

5.) Highest GPM in a Single Match (5 Points) — ‘Less than 800 GPM’ versus ‘More than 800 GPM’

Final answer: ‘More than 800 GPM.’ Done by Sockshka of dd.dota.

6.) Number of Heroes Never Picked or Banned (2 Points)

Final answer: ’36-40′

58 heroes were picked or banned. With 98 heroes in the pool, that leaves 40 heroes not picked or banned. 5 new heroes appeared on this list in day three and 1 new hero in day four. No new heroes were picked or banned on day five. Three new heroes were picked or banned on day 6. One new hero was picked or banned on day 7.

7.) Number of Big Comebacks (1 Point) —  ’3 or Less’ versus ’4 or More’ 

Final answer: ’3 or Less’ . 0 comebacks.

8.) Fastest Game Time (3 Points) —  ’Under 18 Minutes’ versus ‘Over 18 Minutes

Final answer: ‘Over 18 Minutes.’

Rox.KIS called a gg at 17 minutes and change. There’s a debate over whether the Compendium stats end when the ‘gg’ is called or when the game actually ends. I’m going to follow the line in the Compendium that says ‘All times are based on the in-game clock.’ If Valve issues a statement that says otherwise I’ll change this.

9.) Number of Greater than 60 Minute Games (3 Points) —  ’5 or Less’ versus ’6 or More’ 

Final answer: ’5 or Less.’ One 60 minute game. This match.

10.) Earliest Roshan Kill Time (1 Point) —  ’Less Than 1 Minute’ versus ‘Over 1 Minute’ 

Final answer: ‘Over 1 Minute.’

11.) Earliest Tower Kill Time (1 Point) —  ’Less Than 2 Minutes’ versus ‘Over 2 Minutes’ 

Final answer: ‘Over 2 Minutes.’

12.) Rapiers Purchased (1 Point) —  ’2 or Less’ versus ’3 or More’ 

Final answer: ’3 or More.’  Eight purchased total. Two purchased in the first three days. Both by Gyrocopter. One purchased by in this match and the other in this match. On day five I believe four were purchased. Here, here, and here. On day 6 one was picked up in this match. One in the finals.

13.) Refreshers Purchased (1 Point) —  ’3 or Less’ versus ’4 or More’ 

Final answer: ’3 or Less.’ 3 purchased: in this match, this match, and this match.

14.) Largest Single Crit Hit Damage (1 Point)

Using the assumptions outlined in this post, the correct answer might be 1701 – 1800. Once again, I’m not really sure what Valve is asking for in this question. I believe Luna hit a ranged creep for 1798 displayed damage and 1696 of actual damage at minute 72.44 in this game.

I saw a reddit comment that said in the combat log a Tiny illusion struck another illusion for a much larger crit in this game. Update: Please see Simon’s comment (thanks Simon) below regarding this. Crit displayed is only 991 while actual damage is 2171. Which one counts depends on what Valve is looking for in this question.

15.) Most Roshan Kills in a Single Game — ’3 or Less’ versus ’4 or More’ (3 Points)

Final answer: ’4 or More.’ Done in this great match between EG and Rox.KIS.

28 thoughts on “Compendium Predictions: West Qualifiers Running Tally

    1. Decoud Post author

      The current correct answer for all of the questions will all be on this page, with maybe a link to a spreadsheet that has some of the raw data. I’ll try to update the info at the end of each day.

      Reply
  1. 8pixels

    nice info… this can help me decide my prediction for east qualifiers.. when will u make the prediction for east?

    Reply
  2. Inritus

    The Divine Rapier pickup in day 2 (game ID:195379466) happened after GG was called (22:20 and picked up at ca 22:50) and should thus not count.
    Otherwise great work, keep it up!

    Reply
    1. Killakan

      I am not sure if I am correct, I am just posting what I read but this is copied directly from the compendium
      All times are based on the in-game clock. Games are considered over when the ancient is destroyed – not when the ‘GG’ call occurs. So maybe it still applies?

      Reply
    1. Decoud Post author

      Thanks for the correction. Due to the remake, I had to enter the draft info manually and entered game 2 of iCCup vs. mouz instead of game 1. Should be fixed now.

      Reply
  3. myk

    who do you think will win most banned? IO or Batrider? They both are having a good competition for most banned and I picked bat :(

    Reply
    1. Decoud Post author

      Still thinking Wisp but it could go either way. In particular, I would not let a Batrider get through against EG and would not let a Wisp through against dd.dota or mouz. Seeing a lot of bans for both of those over the next few days.

      Reply
  4. Johnnewman

    Hey, mate.
    Great site, I really really appreciate thw work your doing. Keep up the good work.
    But I wanted to suggest that you may put a kind of note at the top or something which tells us which the last game was you took into consideration when updating the current status of the predictions ect.
    Would really help alot.
    Thx for everthing again and good day!
    John.

    Reply
  5. Makal

    Awesome work! I’ve found your site through Reddit, following the link to the Western Qualifiers Predictions, but I’ll surely keep following it after the qualifiers.

    Reply
  6. Silvi

    Thanks a lot for your work mate! Sure is nice to see someone helping out other players with Compendium =)

    Reply
  7. [Y2K]

    On the first game of Mouz vs RoX the GG was called at 17:45, thus the game ended before the 18 minute mark

    Reply
    1. Silvi

      Yeah, but still, the in-game clock stopped at a few second after 18:00.
      Since it’s so close, I think Valve should reward both the ones who placed over 18 and those who placed under 18. It’s pretty unclear on their end.

      Reply
  8. Inritus

    According to Cyborgmatt it’s up to GD studio to make compendium bet decisions, and they have confirmed it was under.

    Reply
    1. b9

      This is all way too arbitrarily decided. Gold collected (GPM) and Rapiers/Refreshers, critical hits and kills/deaths all count way past the gg call (all these destroyed buildings in enemy base and all the fountain-killing is a lot of gold), for fastest game time it stops right at the GG call, I hope it’s handled a bit better for eastern qualifiers.

      Reply
      1. Inritus

        Yeah I agree. The admins (GD studio for west quals) were supposed to use admin commands to blow up throne when GG is called. So talking about anything that happened after that – both item pickups as well as time for actual throne-explosion is non-sense. But when this isn’t done you get these difficult situations.

        Reply

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